My figuring at the time point where the blue arrow is, was that this stock price had been bouncing off its resistance for a while now (the middle green line), and was coming up again for another try. I read that if a price breaks its resistance, that level will often become the new support level for the price, and the price will shoot upwards. I figured that if I were lucky and hopped on board right when it broke resistance, it might shoot up. If I were even luckier, it might shoot up past its longer-term resistance (top green line) and who knows how much higher. Obviously I had some unhealthy expectations for this stock.
So I bought the stock at the blue arrow on the chart. I bought twice as much as I meant to, because first I placed a limit order. Since I wasn't patient enough for the price to hit my limit order, I canceled the order and placed a market order. Then the price reached my limit order (which I thought I had canceled), and I mistakenly bought twice the number of shares that I had meant to. I suppose that counts as another one of my mistakes to post about on this blog. In any case, I held on to see what would happen.
Unrelated to stock trading, it turned out that I needed the money I was trading with. For reasons why, see my post about investing while unemployed. The price dipped a little, and when it went back to where I had bought it, I figured I would stop while I was at break-even (including commission fees), and sell the shares, since I needed the money. I've made some mistakes in investing so far, but I know not to trade with money I can't afford to lose. So I sold the shares at the red arrow.
I still paid attention to the stock, to see if it turned out that I was right with my basic technical analysis predication based on support and resistance. As of December 6th, the stock has gone down quite a bit (as you can see from the chart) compared to where I bought shares. Through pure luck of pulling out when I did, I missed out on the big plunge. Had I held on, I probably would have fallen for the same mistake I had suffered once already.
I've decided not to trade on the basis of technical analysis from now on for two reasons: it's not an exact science, and it does not fit with my dividend growth investing strategy. I've heard statistics saying that a significant percentage of day traders lose money overall, and their trading is largely based on technical analysis. I haven't labeled this post as a mistake or a success, as it was neither. It was simply another step in my journey of learning about investing in the stock market, and I've shared the results in this blog post.
